Helen Pillar‘s paper on Impacts of Atmospheric Reanalysis Uncertainty on Atlantic Overturning Estimates at 25°N has been published in the Journal of Climate and is freely available.
In this study, Helen quantifies the impact of uncertainty in surface fluxes of buoyancy and momentum across different reanalysis products on the modelled Atlantic meridional overturning at 25°N between 19940-2011. Uncertainty in overturning induced by prior air–sea flux uncertainty can exceed 4 Sv within 15 years, at times exceeding the amplitude of the ensemble-mean overturning anomaly. A key result is that, on average, uncertainty in the overturning at 25°N is dominated by uncertainty in the zonal wind at lags of up to 6.5 yr and by uncertainty in surface heat fluxes thereafter, with winter heat flux uncertainty over the Labrador Sea appearing to play a critically important role.
MIT News are running a story on former DPhil student, Ed Doddridge‘s paper, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, on The role of ocean eddies in maintaining biological activity in subtropical gyres. Wind-driven downwelling exports nutrients away from the sunlit zone, preventing phytoplankton from thriving. In this paper, we show that eddies, by opposing this wind-driven downwelling, can change how much fluid is exchanged between the sunlit layer and the homogenous layer below, thereby allowing the nutrient concentration at the surface to increase. See MIT News for the full story and JGR Oceans for the published paper.
The NERC and Met Office-funded short course on the Role of the Oceans in Weather and Climate (OiWC2018) is taking place this week at the Met Office, Exeter (11-16 March 2018) with accommodation at the Globe Hotel in the beautiful village of Topsham. This is the second such course, the first running in March 2015.
For updates, see @OiWC2018.
DPhil student Graeme MacGilchrist‘s paper has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research in which we characterise the chaotic nature of ocean ventilation pathways through a filamentation number. The filamentation number quantifies the extent to which fluid parcels are stretched and folded over, analogous to layers of puff pasty being rolled out and folded by a baker. We find that the filamentation number if large everywhere in the North Atlantic and increases with depth, implying highly chaotic ventilation pathways.
The publication link will be posted once available but in the meantime please email [email protected] for a preprint.
We’ve received the exciting news from NERC that our proposal “GEOMETRIC: Geometry and Energetics of Ocean Mesoscale Eddies and Their Representation in Climate models” received the highest possible grade and will be funded!
This project will involve implementing, validating and quantifying the impact of our new geometric parameterisation of ocean mesoscale eddies in the NEMO ocean model. We will be working with a number of co-investigators and project partners across the UK including James Maddison (Edinburgh), Xiaoming Zhai (UEA), George Nurser (NOC, Southampton) and Gurvan Madec (UPMC, Paris).
Our paper presenting a simple model of eddy saturation – the surprising insensitivity of the strength of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to surface wind forcing – has been published in Geophysical Research Letters and highlighted as a Research Spotlight in EOS.
The model invokes three ingredients: a momentum budget, an eddy energy budget, and a relation between the “eddy form stress” and eddy energy that we have identified in previous work. The model also predicts that circumpolar transport increases with increased bottom friction, a counterintuitive result that is confirmed in eddy-permitting calculations. These results suggest an unexpected and important impact of eddy energy dissipation, through bottom drag or lee wave generation, on ocean stratification, ocean heat content, and potentially atmospheric CO2.
Much of our recent work has been building on a geometric framework for parameterising eddy fluxes that we first published in 2012 and 2013. A consequence of this framework is that if the eddy energy and stratification are known, then the eddy diffusivity is determined uniquely aside from a non-dimensional scaling factor that is no greater than 1.
A paper led by Scott Bachman has just appeared in Ocean Modelling in which we use a high-resolution numerical model to diagnose the eddy diffusivity in an unstable front and compare it to several theoretical predictions. Not only does the geometric eddy diffusivity fare better than the competition, but it out-performs our wildest expectations. This is a particularly exciting result as it may allow us to improve the parameterisation of unresolved eddies in the ocean models used for climate prediction.
Subtropical gyres are the ocean’s deserts. Classically this is believed to result from surface wind forcing driving convergent surface currents and downwelling, preventing the supply of essential nutrients from the cold, nutrient-rich beneath. Nevertheless modest biological activity is found, at odds with this simple paradigm.
We have just published a paper in the Journal of Physical Oceanography which shows that turbulent eddies oppose the wind-driven downwelling. The following is a movie produced by Ed Doddridge, my former graduate student and lead author on the paper.
Particles tracked for ten model years. The small lines represent individual particles and the large circles show the centroid of the particles. The green particles move with the Eulerian-mean velocities, while the purple ones move with the full, eddying velocities. The background colours show the potential temperature on a meridional slice through the model domain. These tracked particles provide a method for estimating the “Generalised Lagrangian-mean velocity” of the subtropical mode water. The results demonstrate that the eddy transport opposes the Eulerian-mean downwelling.
We are currently writing a follow-up paper to explore the implications for biological activity in the subtropical oceans.
(thanks to Ed Doddridge for his post on which this is based)